Film: Academy Award Predictions

The Grateful Eight

By Alex Carrigan
QuailBellMagazine.com

Boys stand outside a movie theater in 1923.

There’s a certain challenge in making a prediction list for awards shows. As my Golden Globes prediction post showed, there’s a high chance of failure. After all, if you’re outside the voting group, you can’t really get an idea on how people will vote. You can try to follow what previous award shows have given their awards to, or you could go with your gut and try to pick what you personally think the winners will be. Both methods can result in poor judgment and missed choices. It’s very rare to get a perfect score, even if you go to a Las Vegas bookie for help.

Still, I want to make an attempt to predict the awards. What I’m going to do is go through the categories, say what I think will win and what I think should win. It’s something that allows me to analyze how other awards shows have awarded the win, while also giving me a chance to explain my own personal preferences and why they are worthy of merit. Here we go:

Best Documentary-Short Subject, Best Live Action Short Film and Best Animated Short Film

I’m grouping these three together early for one specific reason: I can’t predict them. At awards shows, some people can only vote for certain categories if they have some understanding of the subject or work in the field. For example, Academy members who work in Special Effects can vote for Best Special Effects. With these three categories, there’s very few opportunities for most people to see any of the nominations. They’re usually aired solely in major cities like New York or Los Angeles. If a small town (like mine) gets them, it’s usually a one day exclusive event at a theater chain.

In short, I’m really shooting in the dark with these three, so I’ll ignore them.

 
Best Visual Effects

What I think will likely win: Interstellar. There’s a trend to these kinds of awards. For Visual Effects, it often goes to the most artsy, or at least high class film. Yes, there’s action films and superhero films that get nominations for these films, but generally, they give it to the one that the Academy members can see and still hold to their sense of superiority, like Gravity or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. That’s not to say Interstellar wouldn’t deserve it, but it’s that, by trend, I think it will win. 

What I want to win: Guardians of the Galaxy. This movie was a real treat last year, and I thought it was one of the best looking superhero films we’ve had in a while. There’s some really good motion capture work that’s integrated with the human actors, and a lot of the background effects and action sequences looked really good.

Best Film Editing

What I think will likely win: Boyhood. Even though it’s not apparent, there is a lot of really good editing in this film. When I think of how much was shot for this film and how they would integrate it into a final product, I do think it’s pretty astounding. Sure, it could be as simply as remembering which thumb drive contained 2006-2008, but I think it was a good job.

What I want to win: Whiplash. This movie looked very difficult to make. You see Miles Teller’s hands bleed all over the drum kit, and I imagine the editor’s fingers got blistered from all the cutting and editing he had to do. All the musical sequences are rapidly cut and look seamless. There’s a real energy to the sequences, and I think it all looks really well done.

Best Costume Design

What I think will likely win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I’ll admit I’m a bit cynical when it comes to this category. Time and time again, the award almost always goes to period films. It’s always who made the best Victorian ball gown or who made the best zoot suit for the gangster movie. This year’s crop of nominees continue that, since not a single one of these is set in a modern era or real world. Still, I think The Grand Budapest Hotel’s costumes are the best. If anything, there’s a certain whimsy and charm to how they look. It’s a mix of period, fantasy, and camp that I think is a little better executed than something like Into the Woods.

What I want to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I really do think this had the most interesting costumes, and it already won a Critic’s Choice for that, so I hope it gets the award.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

What I think will likely win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. There’s really no in-depth explanation for this. There’s a lot of attention for how the characters would look in this film, and I think it was all really well done. I especially like the old age makeup on Tilda Swinton, which I thought was really convincing.

What I want to win: Guardians of the Galaxy. I do like The Grand Budapest Hotel’s makeup, but I think Guardians of the Galaxy had a bigger challenge. They had to make all the characters look different and alien-like, and I think some of the designs were really good looking, particularly Gamora (Zoe Saldana) and Drax (Dave Bautista).

Best Cinematography

What I think will likely win: Birdman. This film is such a technical marvel (although the Academy didn’t think it was worth an editing nod and somehow The Imitation Game was), and it really took a good eye to make it look like a single take and make it not at all disorienting or confusing. It’s very seamless, and it’s probably one of the better looking films to come out last year.

What I want to win: Birdman. I really do think it’s got this one locked down. Ida might be the best challenger, but I really think Birdman can’t lose this one.

Best Production Design

What I think will likely win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I know Wes Anderson is one of those directors people tend to be on the fence about, but the design of his movies is always spectacular. This film employed models, CGI, and large sets to give a real atmosphere and style to the story being told. The hotel looks like a giant cake, and I think people want to eat it up.

What I want to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I want to eat the cake too.

Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing

I’m putting these two awards together because they can be a bit difficult to judge for those who aren’t involved in sound. A lot of people aren’t sure of what the difference between editing and mixing are (it’s in the name), and even knowing the difference can make it difficult to judge.

Generally, both awards get swept by the same movie. Because of that, I think American Sniper or Interstellar could pick both of them up. Personally, I think Whiplash should get Sound Mixing and Birdman should get Sound Editing. I can’t go further with these ones other than that I think there’s really good sound design in those films, and I think there’s more of a challenge to how Whiplash and Birdman recorded sound for editing and mixing.

Best Original Song

What I think will likely win: “Glory” from Selma. This is what has been winning a lot of awards, and for good reason. Pharrell and Common have made a song that’s part spiritual and part call-to-arms. It’s a song that references the Civil Rights movement and topical issues like Ferguson. I think it’s a very relevant song, so it’s likely to get the Oscar. It’s certainly not going to “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me or “Lost Stars” from Begin Again. I listened to all five songs, and those two were pretty bad. “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights was just okay. Which brings me to the fifth nomination:

What I want to win: “Everything is Awesome” from The Lego Movie. I do like “Glory,” but I love “Everything is Awesome.” It’s a song that starts off as propaganda but later is retooled to be one about teamwork and enjoying life. It’s really catchy and fun, and it would be surreal if The Lonely Island got an award for it.

Best Original Score

What I think will likely win and What I want to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Okay, they clearly want Alexandre Desplat to win, and I think this film had better music than The Imitation Game. I’m not a big fan of the Original Score category since it either goes to twinkling piano music or bombastic stereo music, but that’s my pick.

Best Documentary

What I think will likely win: Unlike the other categories, I don’t have a What I want to win because I didn’t see any of these documentaries. I saw one documentary last year (Life Itself), and the other documentaries I know about (Jodorowsky’s Dune) got snubbed. I don’t even really have much to go on. Citizenfour seems to have the best chance of winning, and I can see the Academy wanting to highlight what Edward Snowden did, so I think that will get it.

Best Foreign Language Film

What I think will likely win: Leviathan. Once again, I can’t do a What I want to win because I didn’t see the nominees (I need to step up my game in 2015). Ida has gotten some acclaim, but it looks like Leviathan might take it all. I’m sure either one deserves it, but Leviathan’s on a roll, and it’s probably not going to stop.

Best Animated Feature

What I think will likely win: How to Train Your Dragon 2. This category feels weird since The Lego Movie got snubbed and most of the nominees don’t seem to have the kind of traction for a surprise win (Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, and Song of the Sea). How to Train Your Dragon 2 is part of what I think is Dreamworks’ best franchise, and it’s got a real sense of adventure and storytelling. It takes the audience seriously and gives a movie that could get dark at times, but was still really fun to watch.

What I want to win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. Thank God I saw this one. We’re going to have a large void now that Hayao Miyazaki isn’t directing and Studio Ghibli might not be making movies anymore, but I do hope Isao Takahata continues to direct. He’s made some really good anime films, one of which, Grave of the Fireflies, is considered a masterpiece. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya isn’t as good as Grave of the Fireflies (Grave of the Fireflies is one of the most emotionally devastating movies you could ever watch, and Kaguya never got me to the point of crying in my pillow like Fireflies did), but it’s still a beautiful movie with a great voice cast. It’s a great adaptation of one of Japan’s most famous folk tales, and I think it should win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What I think will likely win: The Theory of Everything. This is a hard one because the one everyone thought would win, Gone Girl, was snubbed. I don’t really know what else to say, but Theory of Everything seems like a safe choice.

What I want to win: Inherent Vice. If Gone Girl was nominated, I would have picked that. However, I think Inherent Vice is intelligently written and very funny. I did read a portion of the book and liked it, and I think P.T. Anderson captured the book’s essence in the film really well.

Best Original Screenplay

What I think will likely win: Boyhood. It’s a real challenge to write a movie up as you go along (which let’s be fair, is exactly what this movie was due to its premise), but I think Boyhood did a good job. I did think the writing was generally weaker in the later part of the film, but the early part was really good. A lot of it had to do with how the characters represented the time period and the reactions they had to events around them.

What I want to win: Birdman. Part of me wonders if I should have put this as my “likely to win” choice just because Birdman has such a good script. I might have gone with Boyhood because I think the Academy will shill that movie endlessly on Sunday. Still, Birdman was incredibly written. All the characters were interesting and funny, all the dramatic moments were well handled, and it really gave a style and tone to one of the best black comedies to come out in a while.

Best Supporting Actress

Who I think will likely win and who I want to win: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. This is going to come up in the other Supporting category, but I really think Patricia Arquette should get it. Arquette played a character Boyhood didn’t give the chance to have a ton of dimension to, but I think she sold it. Her character acts as a stable source of maternity and support for Mason, but it’s not until the end that we’re able to see her as a troubled person. Throughout the movie, we see her fail at relationships and sacrifice a lot for her children, but it’s at the end we realize that she’s hidden a lot of her personal troubles and fears from her kids. It’s a fascinating character, and one I’d probably study more carefully if I saw the film again.

Best Supporting Actor

Who I think will likely win and who I want to win: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. Before I saw Whiplash, the last role I saw Simmons in his role as Tenzin on Legend of Korra, a role where he played a wise and powerful monk who served as Korra’s mentor and one of her paternal influences, guiding her through her role as the Avatar and helping to ground most of the characters in a sense of duty and honor. The character he plays in Whiplash is nothing like Tenzin, and that scared me. Simmons plays a complete monster in this film, someone who demands perfection and doesn’t care if it destroys you in the process. He’s difficult to understand, but do we even want to understand him? I really do like that villainous roles can win Oscars, and I want to see Simmons get it for this film.

Best Actress

Who I think will likely win: Julianne Moore in Still Alice. Moore plays a woman with early-onset Alzheimer’s disease, and shows how the disease begins to break her down physically and mentally. It’s a tough role, and one that could easily become unintentionally humorous if handled improperly. From how awards season has been going, Moore is a favorite to win, so clearly the film handled the matter in a way that is well regarded.

Who I want to win: Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl. Personally, this is the kind of role I want to see get more attention or appear more in film. Pike plays a very dark character, one who manipulates and gets what she wants with cool fury. The character is very hard to predict or understand, and even when she explains parts of herself, you’re left trying to wonder how, even with her background explained, she could come to such a point in her life. It’s a chilling role, and one I think is a little more interesting than another “actor plays person with disability” win. Speaking of which…

Best Actor

Who I think will likely win: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything. I can understand Redmayne winning for playing a difficult role and for the amount of time and practice that had to go into create such a performance. He does deserve credit for that, as well as being the youngest nominee of the bunch (at 33 years old).

Who I want to win: Michael Keaton in Birdman. This is going to revive his career. It’s such a complex and interesting character for Keaton to play. Yes, you can tell it’s obviously about him, but he puts such an energy and style to the role. He’s clearly falling apart and putting so much on the line for his play to succeed. I think it’s a really good role and one of the best this year. It’s a different kind of role than most of the other nominees, and I think Keaton should be recognized for it.

Best Director

Who I think will likely win and who I want to win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood. Say what you will about the story or characters, but Boyhood was a very well made movie that could have gone horribly wrong. Linklater is someone who does deserve a bit more recognition for works like the Before trilogy, and I think Boyhood is the kind of work that would inform the public about his work and style.

Best Picture

Who I think will likely win: Boyhood. Everything seems to be going in this film’s favor. A successfully executed premise, acclaimed performances, and a director who has proven time and time again that his experimental work is worthy of recognition. Despite that, Boyhood is probably the most unique film to come out of this year’s crop of nominees. The Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, and Selma are historical films that, while decent, aren’t anything groundbreaking or exciting to remember years from now. The Grand Budapest Hotel doesn’t have the kind of traction needed to win, and the controversy surrounding American Sniper will probably cost it the win.

That’s why, instead of a Who I want to win, I’d say it’s also a case of who I’d be okay with also winning. I do think Boyhood should win Best Picture. It’s not perfect, but I think it’s one of the better executed films in this year’s bunch and probably has the most staying power. Birdman and Whiplash are probably the other films most deserving. Neither film is perfect, but both of them have a lot of staying power and a lot of appeal if people look into them. Whiplash does have the least amount of hype or awareness from the viewers, which might make it hard for it to win. Birdman does have a better chance of taking the win, so if Boyhood somehow loses, Birdman is likely to take the win.

Those are my picks. The Academy Awards are Sunday, February 22 at 8:30 EST. I will live tweet the show, so be sure to follow me @carriganak if you want to see my reactions.

#Real #Oscars #Movies #Cinema #BestPicture #Awards #Boyhood #GoneGirl #Birdman #StillAlice #InherentVice #LegoMovie

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